The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM21 and /NQM21 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | In upper third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | both /ES and /NQ now below 20ma |
Key Levels for Today
| 4090.00 | Halfback |
|---|---|
| 4077.25 | ONH |
| 4056.50 | Settlement |
| 4051.00 | RTH Low |
| 4037.50 | Top of Gap |
| 4029.25 | ONL |
| 4014.50 | Bottom of Gap |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Coming off of three days of expanded range, a balancing day would be in order today. Doesn’t mean we have to get one, just that odds favor it. Overnight inventory is very balanced and already setting up for such a move. Responsive trade would be in the cards within yesterday’s RTH range.
Overnight activity made a new swing low which is bearish. We don’t consider excess in terms of lows in overnight sessions, only RTH ones.
Key Levels above tell us that there is another unfilled gap below us (4.2 – 4.5) which overnight activity has started to test. None of that, of course, counts towards the gap fill as only RTH activity can do that.
The market has started to pay attention to rates again as they’ve crept up in lockstep with the recent tech weakness that is infecting everything else. Keep a chart of the TNX handy.
Scenarios
- Overnight activity is pointing towards potential for balance. Assume same if prices hold within RTH range and look for more responsive trade.
- Should prices get out of range to the downside, the gap below is in play. Target the ONL first and then look to the full gap fill.
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