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Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | lower third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | primary downtrend broken |
Key Levels for Today
| 4515.00 | RTH High / ONH |
|---|---|
| 4486.00 | Top of Single Prints |
| 4467.50 | RTH Low |
| 4440.50 | VPOC 3.21 |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
We come into this session slightly down on a non true gap lower after five sessions of one time framing on the daily chart. That is a dynamic to carry forward as it is generally unsustainable for so many sessions.
Corrective activity has been extremely minimal in this advance and the overnight activity thus far is no exception. There has simply been no price exploration below any prior day’s low, hence the one time framing on the daily.
Yesterday’s RTH distribution has a relatively prominent TPO POC which gives us two pieces of valuable M.G.I. The first is that on any rally today, the market will want to target this level. The second is that a lot of two sided trade took place yesterday which tells us that buyers may be running out of steam in the short term. Potential is certainly there for at least a liquidation break that would clear out some of the poorer location longs.
I am noting that the ONH came right to the RTH High (short by two ticks) and am carrying it forward in my narrative as a further breakout level at some point. Given the context, I would not attempt that trade today but rather after some balance or correction.
VPOC’s
- 03.21 4440.50
- 03.15 4219.50
- 03.14 4163.50
Scenarios
- After five sessions of one time framing on the daily, location is poor for new longs that are trading longer than the day timeframe. Potential is there for a liquidation break with the big question being whether or not it will take out the RTH Low or not. If so, the first VPOC below us (4440.50) would be in play.
- Never forget door number three. While current context is short term overbought, the market doesn’t have to liquidate or do anything. Correction by time and not price is correction just the same.
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