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Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | lower third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | pullback in context of uptrend |
Key Levels for Today
| 4533.00 | Top of Spike 4.5 |
|---|---|
| 4519.75 | ONH |
| 4491.75 | ONL (very poor) / VAH |
| 4472.00 | POC |
| 4444.50 | RTH Low / Weak Low |
| 4416.75 | 50 sma daily |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Futures relatively flat and slightly mixed like yesterday with /NQ’s a bit weaker than their /ES brethren. Yesterday’s afternoon rally was the buyer’s version of a liquidation break as it came off of a double bottom and squeezed higher in a forced manner. The fact that buyers were not able to build on that momentum and bring in longer term players seems to confirm that.
Overnight activity made a small exploration out of range but it’s what it did at the low end of the activity that is most interesting and actionable. Outside of the occasional 45 degree line, we generally don’t bring the patterns of overnight distributions into our narrative. Last night is an exception as it printed a low that is six (!) TPOs across. That’s about as poor of a low as you can get.
Once the smoke cleared after the bell yesterday, the daily chart of the /ES shows little in the form of advance off of that 20sma which it tested twice. Unless the market gets moving back upwards again soon, it would follow logically that the 50sma should be in play.
Let’s close on a daily chart of the /ES that shows all these levels.
VPOC’s
- 03.21 4441.75
- 03.15 4219.50
- 03.14 4163.50
Scenarios
- Assume that ONL to be very poor and in need of repair. That is a short that can target deeper into value and potentially to the POC.
- The RTH Low is weak and would represent a short point if breached. Carry that forward in your narrative as it may be in play in subsequent sessions.
- Watch context closely today for signs of short covering. The market showed us clearly yesterday that it was too short to go lower. That sort of dynamic can sometimes take longer to play out than you would think. As value was unchanged yesterday, bullish players should be looking for a build higher to confirm their bias. Unchanged value keeps things status quo.
