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Strong gap back down as poor highs and lows come into play on the market profile. Let’s unpack it together….
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| 2834.00 | VAL – could be resistant on a rally |
|---|---|
| 2837.25 – 2833.00 | Halfbacks of RTH and O/N sessions respectively. Could also be resistant on a rally |
| 2813.50 | Volume POC, a good first target for any down move |
| 2800.00 | Known strong support of psychological level |
Decent sized gap of -20.25 currently that is just outside of yesterday’s range but just barely. By the time you receive this report gap rules might be in play or might not as prices may move back into range. There is little early indication today as to how prices could react to the opening bell as overnight inventory is very balanced. Furthermore even though we are opening out of balance, we are squarely between the extremes of the last two sessions, both of which were poor.
I would say my overall feel here is that the market is not done selling. The poor low from 5/13 was simply a response to being oversold. But the poor high from yesterday gives a bit more information, I believe in that it happened after just one session upwards. You can’t really make the argument that buyers were just exhausted yesterday. I’m going to work within the framework that rallies into yesterday’s range should be sold.
Scenarios
- As we are in the middle of the two ranges, it’s tricky. My tone is bearish from my comments above. Overnight inventory is balanced but also more spiky on the bottom, so an early rise is possible. I would look to fade that, especially if it was to move up to the VAL.
- I would change my mind about the bias only if I saw a strong opening drive higher than yesterday’s volume POC and subsequent acceptance on bullish internals.
Have a great day,
Peter
