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Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | middle third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | recent uptrend now broken, market rolling over |
Key Levels for Today
| 3883.50 | RTH High |
|---|---|
| 3854.75 | ONH |
| 3840.25 | Settlement |
| 3827.25 | RTH Low (Poor) |
| 3803.50 | ONL |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Continued selling yesterday with another fresh two day low. Some signs this morning, however, that this dynamic may be unsustainable in the very near future.
Overnight activity made a new swing low quite far below the RTH range but has since recovered back into that range. The RTH Low was poor yesterday and is in need of repair.
Today’s early trade is going to be all about whether or not we repair the poor low and where we trade in relation to signposts that are close to us, including the settlement which is not often a Key Level. It’s a key level today because of the sheer number of days that we’ve been down in a row and thus the spot where “screens go green” around the world will certainly matter today.
VPOC’s
- 12.14 4078.00
- 12.12 3989.25
- 12.15 3927.00
Scenarios
- We have a lot of M.G.I. to go on this morning. The overnight low has bested the RTH Low but has rejected thus far in a big way. This is a bullish early indication. If the RTH Low is not taken out early, assume a bullish stance at least up to the ONH, monitoring for continuation as you go.
- Repairing the poor low and failing to take out the ONL would be a bullish signal once prices return back into range.
- Obviously, taking out the ONL and finding acceptance below it would be the most bearish scenario but the odds don’t favor this sort of follow through given simply how far we’ve come in a straight line before today. Anything can happen, but I would be very wary of shorting anywhere below the RTH Low or ONL, myself.
Iceberg Tick
A game changer if you use the TICK as a market internal. Paints time spent above zero in green and time below in red. Traders who know how to use the TICK know that this is what really matters in terms of sustaining intraday direction, not how high or low the extremes are.
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