The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH23 and /NQH23 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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Click HERE for a market profile key that will help you interpret the chart above.
Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | upper third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | neutral to bearish |
Key Levels for Today
| 3904.00 | VPOC 12.21 |
|---|---|
| 3893.50 | Bottom of Single Prints 12.21 |
| 3872.50 | Double Top / Lack of Material Excess (2x) |
| 3837.25 | RTH Low |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Flattish open on very balanced overnight inventory that is fully within range. Day timeframe odds of success will increase the later you get into the session as there is little premarket indication as to how the early trade will go.
Yesterday’s RTH distribution left a second poor-ish high in as many days. We call that lack of material excess if there are about 2-4 ticks of excess. Printing these sessions back to back is very noteworthy and should be entered into your narrative. Both sessions are in need of repair and when they stack like that the effect is often exponential.
Above current prices we continue to leave plenty of market profile nuance such as Single Prints and VPOC’s untested. Think of that as short term bearish. More accurately, bearish until it isn’t. Those areas should be getting tested, so the lack of interest is bearish and if they get cleaned up then it is less so.
VPOC’s
- 12.14 4078.00
- 12.12 3989.25
- 12.15 3927.00
- 12.21 3904.00
Scenarios
- With back to back RTH Highs that are lacking material excess, the setup for a long trade is obviously over these levels. Monitor for continuation and target sequentially, starting with the Bottom of the Singe Prints from 12.21 and on from there.
- Holding inside of range today would continue the neutral to bearish tone. Pay close attention to what the /NQ is doing today as it has been much relatively weaker recently. The lows of 10.13 as discussed in the video above would be in play.
Iceberg Tick
A game changer if you use the TICK as a market internal. Paints time spent above zero in green and time below in red. Traders who know how to use the TICK know that this is what really matters in terms of sustaining intraday direction, not how high or low the extremes are.
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